DROUGHT INDICATORS - August 2000
The Southwest Monsoon got off to an early start in June, but was sporadic and not as robust in July. A few spots received above-normal rainfall in July, such as the area from the southern Sacramento Mountains around Cloudcroft northward to Gran Quivira and areas in the Plains from San Jon to Roy. However, the majority of New Mexico experienced a dry July, especially the Southwest counties where the monsoon usually has the greatest impact. Water year precipitation (October 1999 through July 2000) remains below normal over nearly all New Mexico. The average is 70 percent of normal.
Consequently, drought indicators such as the Palmer Index suggest the amount of rainfall this summer has not been sufficient to improve conditions except in a few favored areas within divisions 5 and 8. The current trend suggests drought conditions are worsening over much of New Mexico.
Climate Division Status
| Climate Division | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Status |
| 1 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.0 | +0.3 | -2.4 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -4.4 | Emergency |
| 2 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -0.6 | +0.0 | -2.2 | -3.8 | -3.9 | -4.3 | Emergency |
| 3 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -0.8 | +0.8 | -0.9 | -2.1 | -0.9 | -1.8 | Alert |
| 4 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -2.2 | -2.1 | -4.0 | -4.3 | -2.4 | -3.7 | Emergency |
| 5 | +0.1 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.0 | -25 | -0.2 | +1.6 | +0.8 | Warning |
| 6 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -3.9 | -4.0 | -2.9 | -3.9 | Emergency |
| 7 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -1.9 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -2.0 | -3.0 | Emergency |
| 8 | -1.1 | -2.4 | -2.9 | -3.2 | -3.9 | -2.9 | +2.2 | +1.0 | Emergency |
Climate Status Justification
Climate Division 1: Climate Division 1 remains in Emergency status. Conditions have worsened from last month.
Climate Division 2: Climate Division 2 remains in Emergency status. Conditions have also worsened. Lake levels are at their lowest in many years. Water levels at Abiquiu Lake are well below the boat ramp.There is currently about 106,000 acre feet of water in the lake. By the end of the season, water levels could easily be reduced to 80,000 acre feet. El Vado currently has 65,000 acre feet of water in it's reservoir. This number will probably be reduced down to 30 or 40 thousand acre feet in the near future. Heron Lake currently has 340,000 acre feet of water and will probably be reduced by approximately 40,000 acre feet.
Climate Division 3: Although conditions have gotten drier, this division remained in Alert Status.
Climate Division 4: Division 4 remains in Emergency Status.
Climate Division 5: Remained in Warning Status.
Climate Division 6: Climate Division 6 remains in Emergency Status. Even though a few spots have received a few good rains, much of the division remains dry.
Climate Division 7: The southern ½ remains in Emergency Status, and the northern ½ remains in Warning Status. Santa Rosa Lake currently has 32,000 acre feet of water. All but approximately 3,000 acre feet is expected to be released downstream by the end of the water season.
Climate Division 8: The area west of Las Cruces remains in Emergency Status, while everything east of Las Cruces in Division 8 is in Warning Status. Rain has been very spotty in this division with some small areas receiving substantial amounts of rain while other areas have received very little.
Forecast: The Climate Prediction Center continues to show the likelihood of above-normal precipitation for the period August through October. Forecasts for the coming winter do not presently show much confidence in above or below normal precipitation. However, because of the demise of the La Nina that prevailed the past two winters, it is more likely the coming winter will be normal.
Other Indicators:
Current (As of August 8) streamflow conditions are as follows:
Canadian River near Sanchez: 29 percent of average
Vermejo River near Dawson: 55 percent of average
Mora River near Golondrinas: 32 percent of average
San Francisco River near Glenwood: 102 percent of average
Rio Grande near Cerro: 14 percent of average
Gila River near Gila: 65 percent of average
Animas River at Farmington: 16 percent of average
Embudo Creek near Dixon: 20 percent of average
Rio Pueblo de Taos near Taos: 23 percent of average
Pecos River near Pecos: 17 percent of average
If conditions remain as they are, the state will go into the winter with virtually no water in storage in Northern New Mexico along the Chama, Upper Pecos, and Rio Grande Rivers.Seven counties which include Union, Quay, Lea, Curry, Harding, Torrance, and Santa Fe Counties also received approval for emergency hay. This means that up to 50% of the grass on land in the CRP program can be cut and baled for hay. The applications and baling deadline is August 31, 2000. The Farm Service Agency received 10 million dollars in conservation funds to be used for the Cerro Grande fire. This money can be used to rebuild fences etc. burned in the fire. Ten million dollars was also received for burned area rehabilitation in the Cerro Grande fire.
Three small fires are currently burning in New Mexico, one on the Santa Fe National Forest, one near Chama, and one in the Gila Wilderness.
The Bureau of Land Management has been conducting range surveys to measure grass conditions. Overall, grass conditions are short going into the end of the summer. This is of concern, as cattle will begin moving from summer ranges in forests to BLM land at lower elevations.