DROUGHT INDICATORS - February 1999

The monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indicate zone 7 is in an advisory stage. Trends in the weekly PDSI strongly suggest divisions 7 and 8 will be in the advisory stage by the beginning of March. It was noted the PDSI is in a fairly sharp decline in most divisions. The 3-month (SPI) shows divisions 2 and 8 in a stage of moderate drought. The committee also noted the PDSI and the 6-month SPI are both still showing the influence of the wet autumn, although precipitation has been below normal for most of New Mexico since early November.

Besides the PDSI and 6 month SPI, the following factors were considered in the committees assessment:

1. Snowpack is well below normal in most areas and already gone in Southwest New Mexico. Snowpack level are not much higher than the dismal 1996 levels at this time.

2. Winter precipitation (preliminary figures) averaged about 40 percent of normal for the state. This is even drier than the average "La Nina" winter in New Mexico, in which winter          precipitation averages 50 to 60 percent of normal.

3. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts continue to suggest a good potential for above normal temperatures coupled with below normal precipitation through at least May or June   1999.

4. Abnormally high temperatures at high elevations is depleting the snowpack at a time when the snowpack is normally continuing to build in the higher elevations of Northern New Mexico. This is one reason why streamflow conditions are near normal in many of the northern rivers.

5. Even though only two divisions exhibited negative PDSI values in January, the weekly trends

coupled with forecast suggest that all divisions with the possible exception of #3 will have a negative index (weekly) by early March.

6. Forest conditions suggest fire dangers are abnormally high for this time of year.

7. Personnel from the BLM and Forest Service Offices are closely monitoring hunting, recreation, and grazing conditions on public lands.

Based on all the factors considered, our recommendation is the following climate divisions should be considered in the ALERT status at the present time:

Divisions 7 and 8

The following divisions should be considered in the ADVISORY status at the present time:

Divisions 2, 5, and 6

It should also be made clear that if the CPC forecasts verify for the coming spring, the SPI and PDSI indices will respond rapidly once we get to the point the wet October 1998 is no longer a consideration. With continued dry weather, the PDSI and 6-month SPI should respond with declining values that will more accurately reflect the conditions by April or May.

Other Information of Interest: USDA-FSA has extended its application deadline for Emergency Relief for Farmers.