New Mexico Drought Status

January 2002

Discussion: Except for some short-term improvements, the state has been in a general drying trend since late spring of 2001. Last winter’s (2000-2001) precipitation averaged 113 percent of normal, while spring of 2001 averaged 105 percent of normal. Summer averaged 84 percent of normal, while autumn of 2001 averaged only 56 percent of normal. The largest deficits have been over the eastern half of the state, especially the southeast. Overall, 2001 was in the drier third of the years since 1895. The statewide average precipitation (preliminary number) of 11.54 inches was nearly two inches below the long-term average of 13.34 inches.

The U.S. drought monitor suggests the eastern half to two-thirds of New Mexico is in some stage of drought, with the worst conditions likely in the extreme southeast.

The numbers below indicate preliminary Palmer index monthly values for the year 2001:

Palmer Index (monthly average) for 2001

Div. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1 +2.2 +2.9 +3.2 +2.3 +2.2 +1.3 +1.3 +1.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -0.4

2 +1.3 +2.8 +3.4 +2.5 +1.9 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -3.0 -3.2 -2.7

3 +2.5 +3.1 +3.9 +3.8 +4.3 +4.0 +2.3 +1.8 -0.3 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7

4 +3.4 +3.5 +3.2 +2.8 +2.6 +2.8 +2.9 +3.9 +2.2 +0.5 -0.9 -0.5

5 +2.1 +2.1 +2.6 +1.4 +0.9 +0.4 +1.2 +2.4 +1.5 +0.1 -0.5 -0.7

6 -0.5 0.0 +0.9 -0.1 -0.7 -1.7 -1.4 -1.8 -2.4 –3.0 -2.5 -1.9

7 +0.1 +0.3 +1.8 +1.5 +1.5 -0.2 -1.6 -1.8 -2.1 -2.4 -2.0 -1.2

8 +2.4 +2.1 +2.0 -0.2 -0.9 -0.7 +0.2 +0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1

The most recent Palmer Index preliminary numbers indicate the following:

Division PDSI for January 5, 2002 December average

1 +0.1 -0.4

2 -2.0 -2.7

3 -0.5 -0.7

4 -0.4 -0.5

5 -0.8 -0.7

6 -2.1 -1.9

7 -0.9 -1.2

8 -1.2 -1.1

These latest weekly preliminary numbers show some improvement since October and November. Normal to above normal precipitation is needed this winter and early spring to allow for continued improvement. The drought monitor committee will assess conditions again during the first half of April to determine whether the present drought is worsening or not.

Average Precipitation by climate division for 2001, compared to 2000 and the 1895-2000 average:

Year #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 State

2001 10.51 13.09 13.56 13.53 8.94 13.82 10.08 8.81 11.54

2000 10.45 14.42 15.22 12.96 11.16 16.48 13.12 12.10 13.24

Norm 11.23 16.30 15.85 12.97 9.35 16.76 13.45 10.78 13.34

The division 4 average for 2001 was actually just over half an inch above normal. The remainder of the divisions were below normal. Divisions 2 and 7 had deficits exceeding three inches, while the division 6 deficit was nearly three inches.

Generalized conditions for climate divisions determined by the drought monitoring committee are as follows:

Climate Division Present Assessment

1 Normal but on the dry side

2 Advisory

3 Advisory

4 Normal

5 Normal

6 Warning - Southeast corner of division, remainder of

division is normal but on the dry side

7 Warning

8 Advisory over most of the division

The following table shows some specific sites for year 2001 as well as the current water year precipitation:

Calendar Year 2001 and Water Year 2002 (thru Dec) Precipitation in New Mexico

National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM

2001 (Jan - Dec) Water Year 2002 (Oct - Dec ‘01)

Location Obs Nrml % Nrml Obs Nrml % Nrml SID

Northwest

Aztec Ruins N/M 8.45 9.90 85 1.16 2.61 44 AZT

Fence Lake 12.23 14.25 86 2.08 3.25 64 FCK

Fruitland 2E 7.62 7.32 104 0.90 1.96 46 FRT

Gallup 9.92 11.59 86 0.74 2.78 27 GUP

Grants 8.21 10.60 77 0.77 2.36 33 GNT

Johnson Ranch 8.74 11.33 77 1.92 2.40 80 CUB

Lindrith 2SE 11.46 14.37 80 2.73 3.21 85 LDR

Navajo Dam 9.90 13.41 74 2.44 3.60 68 BLN

Northcentral

Alcalde 7.24 10.03 72 0.66 2.10 31 ALC

Canjilon R/S 11.54 15.43 75 2.13 3.17 67 CJL

Cerro 12.77 12.87 99 1.59 2.48 64 CRR

Chama 19.46 21.00 93 3.19 4.84 66 CHM

Ghost Ranch 8.68 11.56 75 1.80 2.17 83 AIQ

Jemez Springs R/S 11.57 17.29 67 0.74 3.46 21 JEM

Los Alamos 14.42 18.33 79 0.78 3.24 24 LOA

Red River 21.65 20.53 105 3.45 3.83 90 RED

Santa Fe 2 9.71 14.38 68 0.75 2.94 26 STF

Wolf Canyon 18.59 22.94 81 3.04 4.97 61 CUA

Northeast

Cimarron 4SW 13.83 16.17 86 1.59 2.16 74 CPS

Clayton 10.81 15.50 70 0.81 1.96 41 CAO

Clovis 17.14 17.89 96 2.91 2.90 100 CLV

Conchas Dam 12.44 14.10 88 1.76 2.04 86 CNC

Las Vegas 11.80 16.68 71 1.83 2.32 79 LVS

Mosquero 17.59 16.53 106 3.20 2.15 149 MSQ

Portales 12.79 16.74 76 1.59 2.54 63 POR

Raton 10.48 17.23 61 1.08 1.92 56 RTO

Santa Rosa 11.93 14.17 84 0.82 2.28 36 SNR

Tucumcari 4NE 14.70 15.95 92 2.06 2.48 83 TUC

Central

Albuquerque 6.50 8.51 76 1.06 1.75 61 ABQ

Bosque del Apache 9.18 8.68 106 0.91 1.90 48 SAA

Carrizozo 9.74 12.72 77 1.32 2.45 54 CRZ

Estancia 10.36 12.61 82 2.05 2.42 85 EST

Mountainair R/S 13.50 19.36 70 2.39 2.75 87 MTN

Socorro 9.08 9.60 95 1.24 2.01 62 SCR

2001 (Jan - Dec) Water Year 2002 (Oct - Dec ‘01)

Location Obs Nrml % Nrml Obs Nrml % Nrml SID

Southwest

Animas 9.02 10.92 83 0.41 2.46 17 ANM

Deming 6.94 9.20 75 0.64 1.92 33 DEM

Faywood 10.32 11.89 87 0.54 2.75 20 FAY

Fort Bayard 16.12 15.73 102 0.73 3.09 24 FTB

Gila Hot Springs 12.52 16.34 77 0.96 3.97 24 GHS

Las Cruces 4.94 9.34 53 0.24 2.09 11 STC

Quemado 15.42 14.06 110 1.39 2.65 52 QME

Reserve R/S 13.34 15.77 85 1.15 4.12 28 RES

T or C 6.35 12.08 53 0.46 3.32 14 TRC

Southcentral

Capitan 13.79 16.14 85 2.25 2.23 101 CAP

Cloudcroft 28.24 24.96 113 2.93 4.25 69 CLD

Ruidoso 19.62 21.85 90 2.65 4.02 66 RUP

Tularosa 9.48 9.81 97 2.74 2.54 108 TLR

Southeast

Artesia 6S 8.20 11.78 70 1.50 2.10 71 ART

Carlsbad 7.94 12.46 64 1.54 2.35 66 CWP

Ft. Sumner 9.19 14.46 64 1.53 2.55 60 FSM

Roswell (Climate) 10.38 12.93 80 2.74 2.29 120 ROW

Tatum 13.71 15.94 86 2.74 2.54 108 TAT

Long-term outlook: Warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures have been expanding over the equitorial Pacific indicating development of El Nino conditions. If this trend continues, this could impact New Mexico late in 2002. However, long-term models favor continued above normal temperatures with precipitation normal to below normal over New Mexico through the Spring.

Other Indicators:

USDA-NRCS is reporting snowmelt runoff forecast for January 1, 2001 is signaling below to well below normal volumes for most of the state. The runoff volume at Otowi and San Marcial for March through July is expected to be 56 to 47 percent of normal respectively. The Canadian Basin forecast for below normal for the period March through June. The San Juan Basin forecast is between 65 and 75 percent of normal and the Pecos is slightly higher at 75 to 80 percent. The exception is in the Bluewater/Zuni Basins which are in the 115 to 170 percent of normal range.

River basin precipitation for October through December has been mostly in the 60 to 70 percent of average range. The exceptions being Mimbres, San Francisco/Upper Gila basins at 30 to 40 percent. The December 2001 precipitation has been mostly in the 50 to 80 percent range.

Basin Precipitation

2002

December Water Year

River Basin % of Avg. % of Avg.

Canadian 78 70

Pecos 35 63

Rio Hondo 64 61

Rio Grande 68 58

Mimbres 33 30

San Francisco/Gila 45 34

Zuni/Bluewater 114 71

San Juan 37 55

Reservoir storage statewide is, as of January 1, near 90 percent of last year's levels. Conchas is storing 33 percent of last year's volume. The current storage compared to the average (1971-1990) is 83 percent for the combined thirteen major reservoirs.

Reservoir Storage

% of % of

River Basin Avg. Last Yr.

Canadian 23 33

Pecos 28 67

Rio Grande 79 85

San Juan 103 103

The Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) for January 1 also reflects the lower storage volumes especially for the Pecos Basin

Surface Water Supply Index

Basin Condition

Canadian Moderate Drought

Bluewater Normal

Mimbres Normal

Rio Hondo Normal

Zuni Normal

Pecos Severe Drought

Rio Grande Normal

San Juan Normal

San Francisco/Gila Normal

USDA-USGS is reporting year to date streamflow conditions to be below average. Conditions range from 14 percent of average on the Canadian River at Sanchez to 76 percent of average on the Mora River at Golondrinas.

The Farm Service Agency is requesting disaster designation for Chaves, Eddy and Otero Counties due to losses caused by drought.