DROUGHT INDICATORS - April 1999

New Mexico experienced one of the ten driest winters (Dec.-Feb.) In the past 100 years. March was wet for much of the state with an average precipitation total 133 percent of normal. However, most of the western quarter of New Mexico as well as the Northeast Plains had below normal precipitation for March. Isolated spots in the west (e.g. Fence Lake and Navajo Dam) received less than 10 percent of the normal March precipitation. Meanwhile, the Rio Grande Valley north of Elephant Butte and south of Taos was wet. Except for the northeast, the rest of the Eastern Plains were wet, with some spots from Ft. Sumner to near Hobbs receiving 400 percent of the normal precipitation. Late March and early April precipitation has increased the snow pack in many areas, but a lot more storms would be required to produce a normal snowpack.

PDSI: In spite of the recent storms, the weekly PDSI (as of April 10^th) is now negative in all eight climate divisions. Here are the most recent (March) monthly averages, along with the latest weekly (preliminary) figures, and recommended drought status based on the PDSI.

Division March April 10 Status

1 -0.7 -1.7 Advisory (4 week running avg. is -1.5

2 -1.3 -1.5 Advisory (March -1.3)

3 +0.6 -0.1 Normal

4 -0.5 -1.5 Advisory (4 week running avg. is -1.0)

5 -0.8 -0.7 Normal

6 -1.1 -1.7 Advisory (March -1.1)

7 -0.4 -0.4 Alert (10 month total -19.6 plus other Considerations).

8 -1.9 -2.4 Alert (Does not strictly meet monthly guidance, but very close and presently -2.4)

Long-term forecasts: Long term forecasts call for the potential of below normal precipitation through May or June, but confidence in forecast has diminished somewhat from earlier projections.

Other Considerations: Six month SPI (through February) shows the state in normal conditions. However, 3 month SPI (Dec.-Feb.) Shows divisions 1 and 2 in the -2.0 or worse range, with divisions 4,5,6 and 8 in the -1.5 to -1.99 range.

Winter Precipitation:
Water year precipitation has averaged less than 50 percent over the southwest portion of New Mexico, especially division 8. The wet October and March periods allowed the water year precipitation to exceed 50 percent over most of the state, but timing of that precipitation needs to be taken into consideration.

April 1, 1999 Snowpack Runoff Forecast:

The forecast of April 1 shows the entire state well below average and includes the expectation of a few spring storms. Most of the forecasted percentages are in the 30 to 60 percent range. El Vado Inflow, the highest forecast, is at 62 percent. The Canadian Basin is in the 10 to 45 percent range and the Jemez River is at 15 percent of average.

March 1999 Streamflow Conditions:

River/Location Percent of Average

Rio Grande/Otowi 59

Jemez/Jemez 56

San Francisco 12

Mora/Golandrinas 81

Canadian/Sanchez 51

Costilla/Costilla 51

Rio Chama/El Vado 50

Rio Grande/San Marcial 40

Pecos/Pecos 99

Other Considerations:
According to the Weekly Ag. Update, livestock are being reported to be in mostly good to fair condition. With the recent windy conditions, soil moisture conditions are reported as mostly short. Range and pasture feed conditions are reported at 15% very poor, 30 % poor, 43 % fair, 11% very good, and 1% excellent.