DROUGHT INDICATORS - June 2001

Discussion: After the wet autumn (especially October) and normal winter, spring precipitation was below normal over a bit more than half of New Mexico. Water year precipitation is still above normal over nearly the entire state, but most climate divisions have been experiencing a drying trend since the middle of March. The main contributor to above-normal water years precipitation was the wet October. for example, 7.02 of Ft. Sumner's 12.01 inches of water year precipitation fell in October. In Albuquerque, nearly half of the water year precipitation total (2.66 of 5.52 inches) fell in October. In the north-central mountains, one quarter of the water year precipitation at Red River (3.74 of 15.09 inches) fell in October.

The water year precipitation averages 149 percent for the state. The calender year average is 116 percent, while spring precipitation averages 105 percent. Areas that experienced a dry spring included most of the Rio Grande Valley, the Northwest (except for a small pocket around Farmington), and the Northeast. The figures for Truth or Consequences exemplifies how extremely variable precipitation can range over small areas in New Mexico. the city of T or C received only 26 percent of the normal spring rainfall, while the airport collected 207 percent. Most of this rain fell during an intense, localized event on one day.

The general drying for a good portion of the state since the wet October is reflected in the downward trends of the Palmer Drought Severity Index.

Palmer Index related to drought status:

Climate Div Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Jun 16 Status

1 -2.0 +.7 +1.9 +2.2 +2.9 +3.2 +2.3 +2.2 +1.2 Normal

2 -3.8 +0.1 +0.6 +1.3 +2.8 +4.3 +2.5 +1.9 -0.7 Normal

3 -2.4 +2.1 +1.9 +2.5 +3.1 +3.9 +3.8 +4.3 +3.7 Normal

4 -1.5 +3.4 +3.3 +3.4 +3.5 +3.2 +2.8 +2.6 +2.7 Normal

5 -0.2 +2.3 +2.3 +2.1 +2.1 +2.6 +1.4 +0.9 +0.1 Normal

6 -3.8 -1.5 -0.8 -0.5 0.0 +0.9 -0.1 -0.7 -2.1 Advisory

7 -3.5 -0.8 -0.2 +0.1 +0.3 +1.8 +1.5 +1.5 -0.4 Normal

8 -0.3 +2.5 +2.8 +2.4 +2.1 +2.0 -0.2 -0.9 -1.2 Advisory

Comments/Justifications:

Division 6: Monthly PDSI 10-month running total is -15.4. Division 8: Four week running average of the PDSI is -1.1 as of June 16. All divisions with the exception of division 3 have been in a drying trend since the middle of March. Conditions are drying rapidly in a few divisions, especially divisions 2,6, and 7. Four of the eight divisions now have (as of June 16) a negative weekly PDSI.

Forecast: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle remains in a neutral phase, with little suggestion from long-term models for any significant El Nino or La Nina through winter of 2001-2002. for the past two months, long range models have shown the likelihood of some below-normal temperatures with above normal precipitation in the Central Plains persisting through the summer. This pattern would favor the likelihood of normal to above normal precipitation for the summer in northeast New Mexico (especially division 3). Elsewhere in the state, there are no indications for above or below normal precipitation for the summer.

Other Indicators:

The USDA-NRCS is reporting the snowmelt runoff forecast for June 1, 2001 is signaling normal to above normal volumes for the Pecos and Rio Grande Basins. The runoff volume at Otowi and San Marcial for March through July is expected t be 112 percent of normal. The Canadian Basin is forecast for well below normal to normal for the period March through June. the Rio Hondo runoff for the same period is 50 percent.

Reservoir storage statewide is, as of June 1, near 85 percent of last year's levels. Conchas is storing 48 percent of last year's volume. The current storage compared to the average (1961-1990) is 130 percent for the combine thirteen major reservoirs.

Reservoir Storage

River Basin Canadian Pecos Rio Grande San Juan

% of Average 85 57 131 139

% of Last Year 48 75 83 97

The Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) for June 1 also reflects the lower storage volumes especially for the Pecos Basin.

Surface Water Supply Index

Basin Canadian Bluewater Mimbres Rio Hondo Zuni Pecos Rio Grande San Juan San Francisco/Gila

SWSI -0.4 -2.7 -1.4 -1.4 +0.25 -2.1 +0.8 +1.3 +1.3

Condition Normal Moderate Drought Normal (May 1) Normal Normal (May 1) Moderate Drought Normal Normal Normal (May 1)

The U.S. Geological Survey is reporting the following stream flow conditions:

Stream Vermijo River - Dawson Mora River - Golondrinas Canadian - Sanchez Rio Grande - Cerro Rio Pueblo de Taos Embudo Creek - Dixon Rio Chama - Lapuente Rio Grande - Otowi Pecos River - Pecos Animas River- Farmington Gila River - Gila San Francisco

Percent of Average - May 55 26 6.7 141 96 71 104 71 130 122 67 78

Percent of Average October - May 44 20 48 57 54 77 78 62 117 107 102 237

The Farm Service Agency is reporting federal assistance programs remain in affect for 2000 crop year losses. Applications are still being accepted and payments and being made for losses.