DROUGHT INDICATORS - November 1998

From the month of September to October, the state experienced an overall improvement in drought conditions throughout most of the state. With the exception of a few spots, (the extreme eastern portion of climate division 7 and a few areas in division 8) October was a wet month in New Mexico. Some areas received as much as 300 to 500 percent of the normal precipitation, with most of the areas being in the central and northern part of New Mexico. Preliminary November precipitation amounts indicate most of the state received normal to below normal precipitation. Once again, it appears the driest area in the state was in the Plains, especially the Southeastern Plains.

As of the end of November, all divisions except the following have a PDSI in the "normal range".

Division 3: Preliminary PDSI for November jumped to +1.5 from the October value of -1.1. This improved Division 3 from a "warning" category to an "alert" category according to the drought monitoring groups definition.

Division 7: Preliminary PDSI for November jumped to -0.6 from the October value of -3.5. Division 7 is still in the EMERGENCY category, but has shown improvement. Concern was expressed over the likelihood the rapid improvement in the PDSI was strongly influenced by the exceptionally wet weather in the western portion of the division, while the eastern part of the division did not get nearly as much rain. For example, Roswell's rainfall for October was 570 percent of normal while Hobbs was 80 percent of normal.

Division 8: This division had been in the ALERT category in October. The preliminary PDSI for November jumped to +2.0 from the October value-1.4. By the drought monitoring group's definition, division 8 is now in the "normal" category.

Other Indicators:

With the recent precipitation throughout the state, the state's reservoirs levels are reported to be rising. Current stream flow conditions in many of the states basins are above the long term mean for this time of year. The Weekly Ag. Update is reporting pasture conditions to be mostly in fair to good condition. Soil moisture conditions statewide were reported at 1 percent surplus, 52 percent adequate, 32 percent short, and 15 percent, very short.

Forecasts:

Short term forecasts indicate several storms will bring precipitation to New Mexico during the period December 1-7. Snow levels with these storms will likely be very high.

Long term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (latest release was November 19) continue to show the likelihood of a drier, warmer than normal winter for New Mexico. This forecast is heavily based on the continued development/intensification of La Nina conditions. Present conditions suggest La Nina is continuing to develop.