October 11, 2000
MONTHLY REPORT
DROUGHT MONITORING COMMITTEE
DAVID A. LUCERO, Leader
CHUCK CARUSO, OSE; ED POLASKO, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SCOTTY ABBOTT, USDA-FSA; CHIC SPANN, USDA-FS
JERRY WALL, BLM; DAN MURRAY, USDA-NRCS
BOB GRIEVE, NMDPS
DROUGHT INDICATORS - October 2000
Discussion: The water year ended with a whimper...as far as rainfall was concerned. September was yet another dry month with rainfall only about 20 percent of normal for a statewide average. Only a few stations reported better than 50 percent of average precipitation for September including Navajo Dam at 79 percent, Thoreau 12SE at 67 percent, and Mountainair Ranger Station at 54 percent. In general, the southern and eastern border regions were the driest, while the northern mountains and northwest fared slightly better.
Summer rainfall was not sufficient to cause significant improvement in the Palmer
Drought Severity Index. (PDSI). Lack of rainfall in September is reflected in the
worsening of the PDSI as of 10/7. Roughly 70 percent of the state remains in severe to
extreme drought as defined by the PDSI.
| Climate Division | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sept | Oct7 | Status |
| 1 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.0 | +0.3 | -2.4 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -4.2 | -3.9 | -3.9 | Emergency |
| 2 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -0.6 | +0.0 | -2.2 | -3.8 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -4.8 | -5.3 | Emergency |
| 3 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -0.8 | +0.8 | -0.9 | -2.1 | -0.9 | -2.3 | -3.4 | -3.7 | Warning |
| 4 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -2.2 | -2.1 | -4.0 | -4.3 | -2.4 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -4.6 | Emergency |
| 5 | +0.1 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.0 | -2.5 | -0.2 | +1.6 | +0.4 | -.01 | -1.8 | Warning |
| 6 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -3.9 | -4.0 | -2.9 | -4.0 | -4.7 | -4.9 | Emergency |
| 7 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -1.9 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -2.0 | -3.3 | -3.6 | -4.1 | Emergency |
| 8 | -1.1 | -2.4 | -2.9 | -3.2 | -3.9 | -2.9 | +2.2 | +0.5 | -0.5 | -2.6 | Warning |
Status and Justification:
Division 1 - Remains in Emergency
Division 2 - Remains in Emergency
Division 3 - Remains in Warning but is tending toward Emergency
Division 4 - Remains in Emergency
Division 5 - Remains in Warning
Division 6 - Remains in Emergency
Division 7 - All of Division 7 was moved to Emergency. Last month, only the southern ½
was in
emergency.
Division 8 - Remains in Warning
Forecast: The long-lived La Nina condition in the equatorial Pacific is fading away, with sea surface temperatures returning to a neutral status by the end of the year. The precipitation forecast for the rest of this fall and through the winter months across New Mexico is not weighted either towards wet or dry conditions. Much of Texas and Oklahoma is expected to have above normal chances for precipitation through the winter. There is a slight wet bias for New Mexico and Colorado during the February through April period.
Other Indicators:
Now that the water 1999-2000 year is complete, the National Weather Service has calculated the precipitation amounts from all of their reporting stations. Most of the state averaged anywhere from 45 to 65 percent of normal for the year. There were a few spots which averaged 70 to 80 percent of normal, but not in any particular area of the state.
Precipitation for September and the 2000 water year for the high elevation stations in New Mexico indicate record lows:
River Basin
September
Water Year
% of Average
% of Averge
Canadian
26
87
Pecos
15
65
Rio
Hondo
21
85
Rio
Grande
25
56
Mimbres
6
53
San Francisco/Gila
11
50
Zuni/Bluewater
87
63
The Farm Service Agency reported DeBaca and Roosevelt were approved emergency grazing on CRP land through the end of November. Nine counties have now been approved for emergency grazing in New Mexico.
The Bureau of Land Management sent out letters to their permitees letting them know that grass conditions for feed is very poor. Many ranchers in Northern New Mexico graze their cattle on forest allotments during the summer and move their cattle on to BLM land in the winter. Dry conditions did not allow adequate grass growing conditions this summer.