DROUGHT INDICATORS

Discussion: Like most summers, summer 2000 exhibited a large variability in New Mexico. The absolute range was from 32 percent of normal at the Farmington Airport to 256 percent of normal at Hachita. Precipitation was below normal in most areas, but the statewide average (93 percent) was pretty close to normal. In general, most of divisions 6 and 8 received normal to above-normal precipitation. Most of the other divisions received below normal precipitation, although there were some anomalies. The two worst areas for summer precipitation were in the northwest, generally bounded by a line from Chama to Albuquerque to Reserve; and also the Southeast Plains over Chaves County. Favored areas for summer precipitation included the areas south of a line from Silver City to Las Cruces, the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains, and the area of the north-central mountains from Estancia to Pecos, and northward through Taos and Red River.

Summer rainfall was not enough to cause significant changes in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Roughly 70 percent of the state remains in severe to extreme drought as defined by the PDSI

Climate Division	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sept9	Status
1	-1.7	-1.7	-1.0	+0.3	-2.4	-4.0	-4.0	-4.2	-3.9	Emergency
2	-0.7	-1.5	-0.6	+0.0	-2.2	-3.8	-3.9	-4.3	-4.8	Emergency
3	-0.7	-1.6	-0.8	+0.8	-0.9	-2.1	-0.9	-2.3	-3.4	Warning
4	-1.2	-2.4	-2.2	-2.1	-4.0	-4.3	-2.4	-3.9	-4.3	Emergency
5	+0.1	-1.2	-1.4	-1.0	-25	-0.2	+1.6	+0.4	-.01	Warning
6	-1.7	-2.4	-2.8	-2.7	-3.9	-4.0	-2.9	-4.0	-4.7	Emergency
7	-1.8	-2.3	-2.4	-1.9	-3.1	-3.1	-2.0	-3.3	-3.6	Emergency
8	-1.1	-2.4	-2.9	-3.2	-3.9	-2.9	+2.2	+0.5	-0.5	Warning

Division 3 was changed from alert status to warning, as conditions continue to worsen.

Division 6 is in emergency status even though the Sacarmento and Capitan Mountains received good summer rains.

Division 8 - Conditions are variable and difficult to define which areas are worst.

Forecast: Lingering effects of the La Ni½a continue to influence the weather in New Mexico. Long-term ENSO models continue to indicate the present La Ni½a is weakening and should be gone around the end of the year. While the relationship between the onset and demise of this phenomena with our weather is not presently understand, it remains likely that the 2000-2001 winter will be more of a normal winter than the past two winters. The likelihood for normal precipitation will probably be greatest during the second half of the coming winter.

Reservoir levels continue to drop. Santa Rosa is virtually dry. Without normal precipitation returning, Jemez could go dry by mid to late 2001. The surface water supply index (SWSI) has reached -3.3 in the Bluewater Basin, and -3.7 in the Pecos River Basin. These numbers show severe drought in these basins. Streamflow conditions are as follows:

Conservation grazing is continuing through November of this year in a number of counties. Otero County has requested emergency assistance. New Mexico is also experiencing a late summer-early fall fire season to an unusual extent. This is an indication that the summer rains did not penetrate the larger fuels.