DROUGHT INDICATORS - September 2001

 

Discussion:  Summer (June - August) precipitation ranged from above normal in the southwest and west-central sections of the state to below normal over the north and east.  Southwest New Mexico averaged 111 percent of normal.  Generally, the entire Eastern Plains was below normal from the Colorado border all the way down through Eddy and Lea counties, with the driest areas in the far southeast.  The Northeast averaged only 61 percent of normal while the southeast was worst with an average of only 43 percent of normal.

 

For the longer term (this calendar year through August), precipitation has been within 10 percent of normal over much of the state.  However, the southeast is the exception, where precipitation has averaged only 75 percent of normal.  There are also areas in the southeast that have received only 70 to 80 percent of the normal precipitation this calendar year.  Water year precipitation is still affected by the wet autumn of 2000.  Consequently, water year precipitation is still normal to above normal over the vast majority of the state.

 

Remnants of Tropical Storm Ivo produced some heavy rainfall over mainly southwest New Mexico in the middle of September.  Heaviest rainfall was in divisions 4, 8, and the southern portion of division 6.  These totals won't be reflected in the tables included in this report.

 

The current drought monitor product and Palmer Index both reflect some drought situation has developed in New Mexico, with the most significant area over the southeast plains (division 7), possibly reaching into the southeast portion of climate division 6.

 

Palmer Index related to drought status:

 

Climate Div     April              May        Jun          Jul           Aug                        Status

            

                1              +2.3         +2.2         +1.3         +1.3         +1.5                         Normal

                2              +2.5         +1.9         -0.5          -0.8          -1.1                          Advisory

                3              +3.8         +4.3         +4.0         +2.3         +1.8                         Area south of Mosquero, Alert, rest Normal

                4              +2.8         +2.6         +2.8         +2.9         +3.9                         Normal/Wet

                5              +1.4         +0.9         +0.4         +1.2         +2.4                         Normal/Wet

                6              -0.1          -0.7          -1.7          -1.4          -1.8                          Southeast corner is in Alert Status, rest of division is Normal

                7              +1.5         +1.5         -0.2          -1.6          -1.8                          Alert

                8              -0.2          -0.9          -0.7          +0.2         +0.5                         Normal

Comments/Justifications:

Division 2:  Monthly PDSI has been less than -1.0 for one month.

Division 3:  Monthly PDSI remains positive.  However, portions of division 3 have been very dry since spring.  The drought monitor also shows this area in an abnormally dry status

Division 6:  Monthly PDSI has fallen between -1.0 and -2.0 for three consecutive months.

Division 7:  Monthly PDSI has fallen between -1.0 and -2.0 for two consecutive months.  This

                drought region has expanded westward from Texas over the summer.

 

 

Forecast: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle remains in a neutral phase.  Continuing buildup of subsurface warmer water in the Pacific is consistent with most numerical models suggesting El Nino will return this winter or next spring.  However, models also suggest any El Nino that develops will be weak, moderate at best.  Consequently, it's unlikely El Nino will have an impact on the coming winter precipitation.  Without any significant ENSO signal, seasonal forecasts have little skill, especially in this region of the country.  However, long term projections from the Climate Prediction Group suggest New Mexico's wither will be characterized by precipitation that doesn't vary too far from normal, along with normal to slightly above-normal temperature.  Our best shot at this winter is to expect precipitation to average 85 to 100 percent of normal, with temperatures zero to 3 degrees above normal.

 

Other Indicators:

 

The USDA-NRCS reported, their high elevations monitoring sights have received below normal precipitation through the summer.  The State Engineers Office is reporting the following reservoir levels:

                Heron Reservoir:  approximately 340 thousand acre feet

                El Vado Reservoir:               approximately 140 thousand acre feet

                Abiquiu Reservoir:              approximately 125 thousand acre feet

                Cochiti Reservoir:                approximately 50 thousand acre feet

                Jemez Canyon Reservoir:    approximately 5 thousand acre feet

                Elephant Butte:     approximately 1.1 million acre feet

 

The USDA-USGS is reporting the following streamflow conditions as of August:

                                                                                                                Percent of Average

                                                                                               

                                                                                                August                                                  Year to Date

 

Vermijo River - Dawson                                                       24                                                                           55

Mora River - Golondrinas                                                    32                                                                           39

Canadian - Sanchez                                                             17                                                                            29

Rio Grande - Cerro                                                               58                                                                            95

Rio Pueblo de Taos                                                             66                                                                            79

Embudo Creek - Dixon                                                          88                                                                           63

Rio Chama - La Puente                                                        56                                                                            91

Rio Grande - Otowi                                                              97                                                                            65

Pecos River - Pecos                                                             97                                                                            97

Animas River - Farmington                                                104                                                                          92

Gila River - Gila                                                                     104                                                                          101

San Francisco                                                                       72                                                                            178

 

The Farm Service Agency is reporting, Quay, DeBaca, Curry, and Roosevelt Counties have been approved for emergency grazing on CRP land though Sept. 30.  They are asking for an extension through November 30, 2001.  Lea and Harding Counties have requested approval for emergency grazing on CRP land.